Class 8 Orders Signal Ongoing Market Caution Despite Modest Uptick

Source: FTR Transportation Intelligence

Freight fundamentals continue to test fleet confidence. FTR Transportation Intelligence reports that North American Class 8 truck orders reached 24,300 units in October, up 18% from September, but still 22% below last year’s level. This marks the tenth consecutive month of annual declines, with the 12-month total just over 230,000 units, well below the 10-year average for October.

Fleets Stay Conservative Amid Persistent Headwinds

Despite the uptick, fleets remain defensive. Many continue to delay replacement and expansionplans as they navigate soft freight demand, excess capacity, high borrowing costs, and uneven economic growth.

While vocational and on-highway segments both posted monthly gains, the on-highway marketaccounted for most of the year-over-year drop, underscoring industry caution heading into 2026. Combined September–October orders are 32% below last year, highlighting fragile fleet sentiment.

Tariffs Add Another Layer of Complexity

New heavy-duty truck tariffs taking effect this month are expected to raise costs modestly but are seen as more targeted and measured than initially feared. According to FTR, “USMCA carve-outs, offsets, and delayed parts tariffs” help promote reshoring and supply chain resilience in North America.

Some early shifts in production toward U.S. facilities are already visible, though expanding capacity will take time.

Outlook

FTR expects choppy order trends to persist through the coming months. The freight environment remains the deciding factor for any sustained recovery — and for now, the data suggests that fleets will need more patience before confidence returns to the equipment market.