Electrifying Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fleets: A National Assessment of Adoption and Electricity Demand in Canada

Electrification of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fleets: A National Assessment of Adoption & Electricity Demand

See the report : https://bit.ly/47rytPE

The latest report from the Electric Utilities Suppliers Working Group of the Canadian Electricity Association (CEA) serves as the first national-scale evaluation of the transition to electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) in Canada. It sets out to guide service planning and coordination among industry stakeholders.

In this flagship 2025 publication, the working group presents a baseline forecast over the next 15 years for adoption of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (by vehicle class and use-case) and the resulting load on electricity networks. The aim: to spark dialogue, create a base model for later refinement, and highlight the importance of coordination between governments, utilities and industry stakeholders in planning grid upgrades and energy-management strategies.

Key findings

1. More data is needed. Critical information on vehicle-charging profiles, energy demand, adoption rates, fleet geography and regional variation remains largely incomplete—hindering robust planning.

2. Usage-based planning is essential. Electricity demand is more strongly influenced by the vehicle’s operational use (for example long-haul vs local delivery) than by its class or weight alone.

3. Local fleets dominate in numbers, but not energy demand. While local-use fleets are the most numerous across all truck classes, regional- and long-haul operations drive much higher energy demand—and thus network stress.

4. Managing consumption peaks will be crucial. The gap between typical annual energy consumption and peak load (especially in long-haul applications) is large. Utilities must prepare for worst-case charging scenarios, not only average usage—and must consider smart-charging, load-balancing, energy storage and rate designs that shift load off-peak.

5. Bus electrification is a low-risk, high-impact opportunity. School and transit buses have predictable, centrally-located charging profiles and thus make strong early-adoption candidates. While their aggregate impact is modest relative to all truck classes, individual charging sites may demand 5–15 MW.

6. Stability across scenarios reinforces planning models. Despite variation in adoption-rate scenarios (e.g., conservative vs more aggressive), the share of demand by use-case remains consistent—reinforcing the value of use-case based modelling even in uncertain policy contexts.

7. Inter-institutional coordination is essential. Effective planning will require alignment between transport agencies, energy-regulators and local governments so that fleet-transition goals are matched with grid-capacity and investment timelines.

Implications for stakeholders

Utilities and grid-operators must shift their mindset: fleet electrification is not just more vehicles, but more complex load patterns, new sites and new peak-demand profiles. Governments must support data-collection, standardise reporting on charging loads and dispatch, and align policy tools with grid realities. Fleet-operators must integrate vehicle-technology choices with charging-site design and grid-coordination from the outset.

For Canada’s ambition to decarbonise road freight and transit, electrifying medium- and heavy-duty vehicles is a critical next frontier. This report lays important groundwork—but the path ahead is one of data-gathering, regional refinement and close coordination across sectors.